Jonathan Huberdeau has experienced one of the most colossal and unexpected drop-offs in production in NHL history. Originally drafted third overall by the Florida Panthers in 2011, Huberdeau steadily improved during his ten seasons in Florida. He was above a point per game in each of his last four seasons with the Panthers, capped by an eye-popping 115 points in the 2021-22 season, his final one in Florida. In that season, he ranked tied for second in the NHL in points, first in assists, and tied for twelfth in plus/minus.
That offseason, Florida traded Huberdeau, MacKenzie Weegar, and several prospects to Calgary in exchange for Matthew Tkachuk. It was one of the most high-caliber trades in NHL history and was quickly followed by the Flames signing Huberdeau to an 8-year extension worth $10.5 million per year.
The returns on the Huberdeau trade have been startlingly bad for Calgary. Florida, backed by Tkachuk’s great play, made the Stanley Cup finals in each of the next two seasons following the trade, winning it all in 2023-24. Calgary, meanwhile, went from first in the Pacific in 2021-22 with 111 points to 93 points in 2022-23 and 81 points in 2023-24.
A massive part of the team’s decline has been Huberdeau’s precipitous drop in production since becoming a Flame. In Huberdeau’s first season in Calgary, he produced 15 goals and 55 points in 79 games. In his most full season, from 2023-24, he produced 12 goals and 52 points accompanied by a career-worst -29 rating. For comparison, he put up 8 points fewer in his first two seasons in Calgary than he put up in his last single season in Florida.
One of the most striking changes has been his decline in shots on goal. His total shots on goal decreased by over 43% from his 2021-22 season in Florida compared to his first season in Calgary. Thus far in the 2024-25 season, Huberdeau has been slightly better but still well off his pace in Florida, notching 19 goals, 17 assists and 36 points in 49 games.
Overall, in Huberdeau’s final four seasons as a Panther, he amassed 286 games played, 346 points, 1.21 points per game, 722 shots on goal, 2.52 shots on goal per game, and a +38 rating. Through his first 209 games as a Flame, he has amassed 143 points, 0.68 points per game, 357 shots on goal, 1.71 shots on goal per game, and a -31 rating. Click here to see Huberdeau’s career statistics.
It has been a stark, immediate, and historically large drop in production, as Huberdeau has gone from producing as a top-5 player in the NHL to producing as a middle-six player. His decline has been especially painful due to the size of his contract; Huberdeau is the 13th highest paid player in the NHL for the 2024-25 season.
Investigating the Usual Culprits for Large Statistical Declines
What makes Huberdeau’s decline so perplexing is that none of the usual culprits for large statistical declines appear to be at play. He is still within his prime age-wise. In his peak Florida years he was ages 25-28, and in his last three Calgary years he was ages 29-31, all ages within a player’s peak. Age is certainly not an explanation for Huberdeau putting up 60 fewer points in his age 29 season than in his age 28 season. There have also been no reported injury issues. This report appears to be corroborated by the statistic that Huberdeau has missed just 3 total regular-season games for the Flames across his two-and-a-half-year tenure.
What Has Caused Huberdeau’s Decline?
After delving into Huberdeau’s video and advanced statistics, I believe that almost all the drop in Huberdeau’s production can be explained by external factors as opposed to something that Huberdeau is doing differently.
One factor supporting this conclusion is that there are no discernible drops in any of Huberdeau’s physical tools. NHL edge data demonstrates that Huberdeau has not seen a reduction in his maximum skating speed, average skating speed, maximum shot velocity, or average shot velocity. The table below compares Huberdeau’s final season in Florida with his last full season in Calgary to demonstrate this point.
| Florida, 2021-22 | Calgary, 2023-24 | |
| Max skating speed in mph | 21.99 | 21.94 |
| 18-20 mph bursts | 317 | 366 |
| Top shot speed in mph | 85.67 | 88.22 |
| Average shot speed in mph | 49.84 | 50.82 |
Another factor supporting this conclusion is that many of Huberdeau’s advanced statistics are similar across his Florida and Calgary seasons. His Corsi %, which measures the percentage of shot attempts taken when a player is on the ice that are taken by that player’s team, has stayed consistent. From 2018-2019 to 2024-25, his Corsi % is 52%, 52%, 54%, 58%, 58%, 53% and 54% (the last three numbers are from his time in Calgary, while the first four are from his time in Florida). His passing percentage, which measures the percentage of a player’s pass attempts that are received by a player’s teammate as opposed to intercepted/not completed, has also stayed consistent. From 2018-19 to 2024-25, his accurate passing percentage is 81%, 85%, 86%, 87%, 86%, 83% and 86% (stats taken from InStat).
Style of Play Differences Between Florida and Calgary
For the first two seasons of Huberdeau’s tenure in Calgary, the Flames were coached by Darryl Sutter. Sutter is known for emphasizing a strong defensive system and a simple, north-south style of offense. In the offensive zone, he insists that players cycle the puck and pass it up top to the defensemen whenever possible. The defensemen are instructed to shoot pucks that they receive up top, and the forwards are expected to get to the net for deflections and rebounds.
Additionally, on transition chances the Flames were primarily a dump and chase team under Sutter, and their defensemen were conspicuously cautious about jumping in the rush. The north-south playing style, lack of creativity in the offensive zone, and lack of defensemen joining the rush essentially neutralized everything Huberdeau is good at. Huberdeau’s greatest attribute is his ability to make smart, direct, and accurate first passes, both in transition and in the offensive zone. The simple, regimented style of play employed by Sutter made it difficult for Huberdeau to stand out offensively.
Comparatively, in Florida, Huberdeau would frequently hit defensemen or late forwards joining the rush for goals. In the offensive zone, he would often roll high to create a three-high formation, receiving passes in space and rolling downhill with different passing options all over the ice. While Paul Maurice is certainly a stickler for a tight defensive zone, his offensive systems are predicated on speed, physicality, activation from defensemen off the rush, and allowing forwards to be creative in the offensive zone. None of this happened in Calgary because they played a completely different style of hockey, one that did not serve Huberdeau’s strengths.
There are a few stats that back this distinction. For one, Huberdeau is passing the puck to the slot significantly less in Calgary. According to InStat, in his final two seasons in Florida, he averaged 2.1, followed by 2.6, passes to the slot per game, respectively. In his first two seasons in Calgary, he averaged 1.52 and then 1.18 passes to the slot per game, respectively. His quantity of pre-shot passes is also down significantly, a statistic that measures the quantity of passes per game that lead directly to a shot attempt. In his final two seasons in Florida, he averaged 2.5 pre-shot passes per game in both years. That number dropped to 1.67 and 1.21 pre-shot passes per game in his first two seasons in Calgary.
There is nothing to indicate that Huberdeau has gotten any worse as a passer, which leads to the conclusion that most of Huberdeau’s decline in assist production comes from differences in the system and personnel around him.
Decline in Power Play Production
Huberdeau’s power play production has taken a massive dip from his time in Florida to his time in Calgary. In 2021-22, his final season in Florida, Huberdeau had 38 power play points in 80 games. In the next two seasons in Calgary, Huberdeau had just 34 power play points combined.
Huberdeau’s skillset is tailored to being an elite power play flank player. With more time, space, and options available on the power play, Huberdeau’s incredible passing ability really shone through with Florida, but that efficiency has not translated to his tenure in Calgary.
Reduction in Power Play Usage
There are several reasons for Huberdeau’s drop in power play production. A main one is that Huberdeau has simply not played as much on the power play in Calgary as he did in Florida. His average power play time on ice per game in his last four seasons in Florida was 3:24, 3:30, 4:22, and 3:46. His average power-play time on ice per game in his first three seasons in Calgary is 2:59, 2:46, and 2:44.
Fewer Power Play Threats
Another reason for Huberdeau’s drop in power play production is that Calgary’s power-play personnel is not as strong as Florida’s. Florida’s power-play percentage in Huberdeau’s last four seasons, from 2018-19 to 2021-22, was 26.8%, 21.3%, 20.5%, and 24.4%, respectively. In his two full seasons in Calgary, the Flames never hit the 20% threshold: in 2022-23 they were at 19.8% and in 2023-24 they were at 17.9%. In Florida, while the power-play units frequently changed, Huberdeau was almost always paired with Alexander Barkov, an elite passer, face-off man, and skill player. He also had some combination of Keith Yandle, Sam Reinhart, Carter Verhaeghe, and Sam Bennett to work with. His teammates in Calgary have never had the elite offensive skill that his teammates in Florida had, and as a result, Huberdeau’s exceptional passing ability has been neutralized.
These two explanations correlate with watching Huberdeau’s game film. He looks very similar on the power play in Calgary as he did in Florida. He still makes accurate and quick first passes, is very skilled, consistently makes smart plays, and rarely turns the puck over. But compared to his time in Florida, he plays fewer minutes on the power play and with worse players, and as a result, his production on the power play has dropped significantly.
Conclusion
Huberdeau is just as fast, shoots just as hard, and appears to be just as healthy during his time in Calgary as he was during his time in Florida. Additionally, Huberdeau is still a skilled, pass-first player with incredible vision who relies on his linemates to get him the puck and to finish the plays that he creates. The main reason for Huberdeau’s massive drop in production appears to be situational as opposed to anything Huberdeau is doing differently. In Calgary, Huberdeau has played fewer minutes, both at even strength and on the power-play, he has gotten the puck less often, and he has fewer passing options given the different style of play that Calgary employs compared to Florida.
To me, Huberdeau is an extreme example of a player whose production varies considerably given the situation he is in. Fast, play-driving players with high puck-possession numbers will have tighter production ranges, producing similar statistics regardless of what team they play on. But players like Huberdeau, namely the skilled playmakers that play a slower style of game and rely on the other four players on the ice with them to create offense as a unit, are more prone to a larger range of production outcomes.
This simple distinction seems to have been lost in Huberdeau’s situation, as his massive contract combined with his extreme drop in production have led far too many people to draw the conclusion that Huberdeau is a much worse player in Calgary than he was in Florida. The data simply does not support that conclusion.
Note: Thanks for reading this feature article. To check out another feature article, read about some of the NHL’s worst contracts, a piece in which Huberdeau makes another appearance.