January, 2024
Welcome to the second edition of Cup Contenders, a ranking I’ve created to serve as an alternative to a conventional power rankings, which I’ve always found to be overly influenced by recent performance and a team’s current record. The goal of this ranking is to list, from 1-10, the teams that I believe have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup at the end of the 2024-25 season. Like a power ranking, it will be influenced by preseason expectations, current wins and losses, advanced analytics, and subjectivity. But each of these factors is used instrumentally, as a means of determining which teams are most likely to win the Stanley Cup this year. In this edition, I will be positive and give an argument for why each team ranked has the capacity to win the Cup.
To see the December edition of Cup Contenders, click here.
1. Edmonton Oilers (29-13-3, 61 points, Previous Rank: 2nd)
The Oilers got as close to winning the Stanley Cup as a team possibly can last season, losing in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals to the Florida Panthers. They returned virtually all their important players and added several new ones, which made them heavy preseason favorites to challenge for the Cup once again. Their first half of the season has substantiated those predictions. After starting the season 6-7-1, they have gone 23-6-2 in their last 31 games to put themselves in a tie for first in the Pacific. McDavid and Draisaitl are producing at elite levels once again and Stuart Skinner has really rounded into form in the most recent stretch. While there are still some issues surrounding their depth, all signs point to the Oilers being a legitimate contender to challenge for the Cup once again.
2. Florida Panthers (26-17-3, 55 points, Previous Rank: 1st)
Paul Maurice and the Panthers are prudent enough to know that their regular season record is less important than their ability to enter the postseason healthy and peaking at the right time. As a result, their scuffling performance for much of the season (they are 15-14-2 over their last 31 games) does little to alter their Stanley Cup chances, although they are likely a team that would be ranked much lower in a more conventional NHL power rankings. Their underlying numbers remain strong, and outside of a genuinely concerning start from Carter Verhaeghe all of their top players look primed to make another strong postseason run. They are team built for the postseason with their stifling defense, physicality, and depth, and even though they are not at the top of the league in points thus far they are firmly cemented in the inner circle of serious Stanley Cup contenders.
3. Dallas Stars (28-15-1, 57 points, Previous Rank: 5)
Much like the Panthers, the Stars are a team that is built for postseason success. Dallas is big, fast, and have a legitimate #1 goalie in Jake Oettinger. They are extremely deep up front and have a roster of remarkably balanced scoring, with 9 of their forwards currently at 20 or more points for the season (for comparison, the Panthers have 6 such players and the Oilers have 4). They have a strong back end highlighted by Miro Heiskanen and Thomas Harley, and the aforementioned Oettinger is 2nd in wins, 6th in GAA, and 11th in SV%. Additionally, they have a great balance of young rising stars like Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven and older, more established players like Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Matt Duchene. They have done everything except break through in the postseason, losing in the Western Conference Finals each of the last two seasons.
4. Vegas Golden Knights (29-12-3, 61 points, Previous Rank: 8)
The Golden Knights won the Stanley Cup in 2023 and have many of the same pieces to do it again. Although a true contender’s results in December and January are not particularly meaningful, it is encouraging that the Golden Knights have been playing really good hockey as of late. In last month’s Cup Contenders check-in, the Golden Knights ranked 20th in Corsi % and 21st in Expected Goal Differential this season; at the time of writing, the Golden Knights rank 15th and 14th respectively.
These are encouraging numbers for a team that already fully passes the eye test: they are big (they have the highest average height in the NHL), strong, experienced, and tough to play against. The Golden Knights had a grueling first round matchup last year against Dallas, but so far this season they have vaulted themselves to the top of the Pacific Division and should avoid a first-round opponent of that caliber.
5. Colorado Avalanche (27-18-1, 55 points, Previous Rank: 6)
The Colorado Avalanche have been a pretty easy team to analyze over the years. When they have average goaltending and all their depth pieces are healthy, they are one of the best teams in the NHL. They have unbelievable star-power at the top of their lineup with Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Mikko Rantanen. But because of the money spent on these three players, their depth is extremely thin. As a result, as was seen early in the year, a few injuries combined with a few underperformances can completely sink this team, making them almost entirely reliant on these big 3.
This calculation appears to have changed with the recent addition of Mackenzie Blackwood. Blackwood has been fantastic in an Avalanche uniform. He sports a 9-3-1 record in his 13 starts for Colorado along with a .931V% and a 1.87GAA. If Blackwood can continue to be an above-average goalie for them and if their depth pieces can stay healthy (a big if), then this team is as dangerous as any in a seven-game series.
6. Carolina Hurricanes (26-16-3, 55 points, Previous Rank: 4)
The Hurricanes continue to chug along as an elite regular season team. They lead the league in Corsi % and Expected Goal Differential and sit comfortably in third in the Metropolitan. However, the Canes have had dominant possession statistics in the regular season for multiple years now, but it has failed to translate to postseason success. They have made the playoffs the last six years, notching over 50 wins in each of the last three, but have yet to get past the Eastern Conference Finals during that stretch.
It’s not clear that there is anything that sets this team apart from teams in previous years. The goaltending is still a question mark with Frederik Andersen’s injury history and Pyotr Kochetkov’s inconsistent play. There are also serious questions regarding offensive firepower, which has been an issue in past playoff seasons. Martin Necas has come crashing down to Earth after a blistering start, and their current goal leader is Jack Roslovic with just 17. That number is particularly concerning. So many of the top NHL teams have two or three go-to players that can score a goal in big moments, and it is not clear that Carolina has any of those players despite their impressive depth.
7. New Jersey Devils (26-15-6, 58 points, Previous Rank: 3)
The Devils have not played very well recently, which is of much greater concern for their Cup chances than a team like the Panthers not playing well recently given their youth and inexperience. They are 2-4-3 in their last nine games and have dropped to eighth in Corsi %.
However, there are still a lot of reasons for excitement around this team, the main one being that Jacob Markstrom has continued to play really well even as the Devils have lost several games recently. He ranks 3rd in wins, 5th in GAA, and T-10th in SV%. The Devils have had an exciting assortment of speedy, skilled, and young talent for the last few years but have been unable to achieve consistent success due in large part to their lack of goaltending. The offseason moves to acquire Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen have worked tremendously well thus far and have given the Devils a safety valve to rely on when their talented players inevitably make mistakes.
8. Winnipeg Jets (31-12-3, 65 points, Previous Rank: 7)
Jets fans likely feel better about their playoff chances than their ranking reflects, and for good reason. They have been the best team in the NHL by points and point differential for most of the year and currently sit comfortably in first in the Central Division. They have the unquestioned best goalie in the NHL in Connor Hellebucyck, who leads the league in virtually every discernible goalie statistic and is on his way to a second consecutive Vezina trophy. Additionally, they have Kyle Connor, who is having the best season of his career and has accumulated 13 goals and 31 points in his last 20 games.
There are some concerning underlying numbers, and it is also concerning that this is essentially the same team as the one they have had in recent years when they were mired in mediocrity. However, the Jets have played well enough for long enough this season to be taken seriously as a Cup contender.
9. Toronto Maple Leafs (28-16-2, 58 points, Previous Rank: 9)
The Leafs’ lack of postseason success in recent history has been well-documented: they have won one postseason series in the last eight years despite making the playoffs each of those years. It is enough of a sample size to say that their Core 4 philosophy has not worked, for a variety of reasons that won’t be discussed here.
But while this year’s team is largely the same as last year’s, one main difference is in net. The combination of Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have been really good, and although Stolarz is currently hurt the Leafs have to be excited by the play of their goalie tandem. Through 17 games, Stolarz has a SV % of .927 and a Goals Saved Above Expected of 9.3, while Woll has a SV % of .907 and a Goals Saved Above Expected of 11.1 through 23 games. The early goaltending returns are a massive improvement over last year’s group consisting of Ilya Samsonov, Martin Jones, and Woll. It gives hope that this year’s playoff push will end better than last years.
10. Washington Capitals (30-10-5, 65 points, Previous Rank: Not Ranked)
The Capitals are likely at the top of most people’s NHL power rankings, and they may just need to be taken seriously as a Cup Contender. Last season, they were the joke of the playoffs, getting swept by the Rangers in the first round after sneaking into the playoffs with a historically bad goal differential. This year, after some savvy roster additions combined with several players from last year’s team taking massive steps forward, the Capitals sit at the top of the NHL in win percentage at a remarkable 72.2%. Logan Thompson has a remarkable .924 SV% and 23.3 Goals Saved Above Expected to form a formidable tandem with Charlie Lindgren. Alex Ovechkin has 21 goals in 29 games, and Dylan Strome and Connor McMichael are well on their way to career years.
They are 11th in xGoals%, which is not terrible considering that they are also bolstered by strong goaltending. This team has gelled well under Spencer Carbery and have played well enough this season to emerge as a legitimate Cup Contender.
11. L.A. Kings
12. Minnesota Wild
13. Tampa Bay Lightning
14. Boston Bruins
15. New York Rangers
Photo by Timonthy Matwey, The Canadian Press
