December, 2024
Welcome to the inaugural edition of Cup Contenders! I’ve created this ranking as an alternative to a conventional NHL power rankings, which I’ve always found to be overly influenced by recent performance and a team’s current record. The goal of this ranking is to list, from 1-10, the teams that I believe have the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup at the end of the 2024-25 season. Like an NHL power rankings, it will be influenced by preseason expectations, current wins and losses, advanced analytics, and subjectivity. But unlike an NHL power rankings, each of these factors is only used instrumentally as a means of determining which teams are most likely to win the Stanley Cup this year.
#1: Florida Panthers (22-12-2, 46 points)
The Panthers lost Brandon Montour, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, and a few other depth pieces this offseason, but other than that they rolled back a very similar roster to last year’s Stanley Cup winning one. Unsurprisingly, the Panthers are, for the most part, humming along with similar numbers as last year’s team. Sam Reinhart is once again scoring at an elite level. Matthew Tkachuk is elite at his role. Alexander Barkov is in the conversation for best two-way player in the NHL. As well, depth pieces like Carter Verhaeghe, Gustav Forsling, and Sam Bennett are all effective mid-roster players.
The greatest area of concern is in net. Sergei Bobrovsky has dipped from a .915 SV % and 2.37 GAA last season to an .895 SV % and 2.80 GAA this year. He also has a lousy -5.2 Goals Saved Above Expected. While he was fantastic in last year’s playoffs, he is 36 years old and has had his share of inconsistencies over his career. Coupled with Bobrovsky’s decline is the fact that Spencer Knight has been a significant step down as this year’s back-up compared to Anthony Stolarz.
The truth is, though, that the goaltending concerns are more nitpicking than anything. While the Panthers won’t be first in most NHL power rankings, they are a strong, deep and experienced team . Nothing about their start thus far this year says they can’t do it again.
#2: Edmonton Oilers (21-11-2, 44 points)
The Oilers are another team that is higher in this ranking than they would be in an NHL power rankings. They got off to a concerning start, losing their first three regular season games and checking in at 6-7-1 after their first 14 games. But they’ve since returned to the Oilers of old, dominating 5 on 5 puck possession and Corsi percentages. Leon Draisaitl has 24 goals and 52 points in 34 games, and McDavid has 39 points in his last 20 games after scuffling out of the gate.
There are, however, a few areas of concern. For one, the Oilers’ offseason signings, intended to bring them much-needed secondary scoring, have been disappointing. Jeff Skinner has 12 points and a -10 rating through 34 games and has been playing on the fourth line of late. This is a player coming off an 82 point season in 2022-23 and a 46 point season in 2023-24. He is currently on pace for a lowly 29 points this year. Viktor Arvidsson has just 7 points in 19 games and has been injured recently. Arvidsson had 15 points in 18 games the year prior and 59 in 77 during the 2022-23 season. Finally, Stuart Skinner has been subpar to start the season as well. He sports a middling .895 SV % and a -4.9 Goals Saved Above Expected.
As a result of these developments, the Oilers are essentially the same team they were last year. They rely heavily on McDavid and Draisaitl, even more so this year than they did in years prior. Thus far, Draisaitl has 52 points, McDavid has 49, and the third-highest scorer is Evan Bouchard with 25. They have below-average goaltending and some genuine defensive concerns. While last year’s team made it all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup finals, the Oilers were hoping that this year’s team would be even deeper. That has not been the case so far.
#3: New Jersey Devils (23-11-3, 49 points)
The Devils have all the makings of a team ready to make a serious Stanley Cup run. They have an elite, top-10 player in Jack Hughes playing at the top of his game, strong depth on both forward and defense, and elite underlying numbers, highlighted by them leading the NHL in expected goal differential. And now, finally, they have strong and reliable goaltending in Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen. These developments have culminated in some record-breaking play as of late; the Devils are the first team in NHL history to keep their opponents under 20 shots in seven consecutive games.
One of the main worries is their youth. Their average age is the second youngest in the NHL behind only the Blue-Jackets. They don’t have as much playoff experience as many of the other teams on this list, and missing the playoffs last year did not help with that. Regardless, this is a dangerous, deep, and highly skilled team that now finally has reliable, above-average goaltending.
#4: Carolina Hurricanes (21-12-1, 43 points)
Carolina has been a dominant advanced analytics team for a few years now. Last season they were first in Corsi % with a whopping 59.57% and second in xGoals for at 55.97%. Most importantly, they were third in the NHL overall with 111 points. This season, after losing several key depth pieces including Teuvo Teravainen, Brady Skjei, and Stefan Noesen, many people expected them to take a step back. But thus far they have been the exact same dominant regular-season team that we are used to. They have 43 points in 34 games and sit comfortably in third in the Atlantic. They are third in in xGoals at 55.73% and first in Corsi % at 59.37%, numbers right in line with last season.
As well, there are several encouraging signs for the Hurricanes. One is that Pyotr Kochetkov has been really good since Frederik Andersen went down with an injury. Another is that Martin Necas, a player that has always had immense skill, has finally made the jump to being an elite player. He sits at 44 points in 34 games. The question for Carolina remains the same as it has for the last few years: can they turn their dominant regular season statistics into lasting postseason success? Only time will tell the answer, but they are certainly off to a good start in the 2024-25 season.
#5: Dallas Stars (20-13-0, 40 points)
The Stars made it to the Western Conference finals last year, losing to the Oilers in six games. They returned a very similar team apart from Joe Pavelski’s retirement. The hallmark of their team is depth, which has once again been on display this season. They have 13 players possessing over 10 points and seven possessing 20 or more. Oettinger has been solid, and their team defense has been strong as well. The main worry with the Stars is that they don’t have the high-end firepower to compete teams like the Oilers. This worry has been magnified this season with Jason Robertson’s decline, as the former 100-point scorer currently has just 7 goals and 16 assists through 33 games this season.
#6: Colorado Avalanche (21-15-0, 42 points)
We know what the Avs are: a top-heavy team that lacks depth. Nathan Mackinnon is leading the NHL in points, Mikko Rantanen is tied for second, and Cale Makar is first among defensemen. Outside of them, the Avalanche have had a flurry of injuries and inconsistent play. Why do I have them sixth despite their lack of depth? Mainly, I think the additions of Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood greatly improve their goaltending from what it was. Alexander Georgiev was terrible for the Avs, sporting a .873 SV %, 3.44 GAA, and -10.3 Goals Saved Above Expected. Blackwood has a .914 SV% and 5.5 Goals Saved Above Expected playing on a below-average team most of the year. This is a significant upgrade at starting goalie. Additionally, Wedgewood is a more reliable backup than Justus Annunen.
While this is a team that likely would be ranked significantly lower in an NHL power rankings, their average/above-average goaltending coupled with extremely high-end scoring from their top players makes this Colorado team as dangerous as any. If their depth scoring can stay healthy and provide more consistency, this becomes a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
#7: Winnipeg Jets (25-10-1, 51 points)
The Jets became the first team in the NHL to reach 25 wins on Monday, defeating the Leafs 5-2. They started the season 15-1-0 and have continued to pace the NHL in points ever since.
This is a prime example of a team that ranks lower in this ranking compared with an NHL power rankings. The Jets have essentially the same roster as the last several years, and at no point have they made a serious playoff run. Additionally, so much of this year’s success rests on Connor Hellebuyck. Hellebuyck, along with a league-leading 32.1% success rate on the power-play, has helped to mask some concerning underlying statistics: the Jets rank 21th in Corsi % and 18th in Expected Goal Differential. There are real worries about sustainability with possession numbers that low, especially considering that none of the other teams ranked above them on this list rank outside the top ten in any of those numbers.
#8: Vegas Golden Knights (23-8-3, 49 points)
The Knights have all the makings of a serious Stanley Cup contender, which is no surprise given that their team is similar to the one that won the Cup in 2023. This year’s iteration has seen an even more dominant Jack Eichel and Mark Stone (when healthy), which has helped lead Vegas to the top of the Pacific division with 47 points. This is despite the fact that they have had underwhelming advanced statistics for multiple years now, punctuated by a rank of 20th in Corsi % and 21st in Expected Goal Differential this season. They also have not relied on exceptional goaltending like Winnipeg has: Adin Hill sits at a .905 SV % and Ilya Samsonov at a .898. Regardless, their formula has worked for a while now, and this is a dangerous team with size, strength, speed, and experience come playoff-time.
#9: Toronto Maple Leafs (21-12-2, 44 points)
The Leafs have a lot of things going for them so far this year. After overhauling their goaltending situation, Anthony Stolarz and Joseph Woll have combined to lead Toronto to a .914 SV %, second in the NHL behind only the Winnipeg Jets. John Tavares has had a resurgent season after a dip last year. Finally, they have seen a number of depth pieces step up, highlighted by Matthew Knies, Bobby McMann, and Jake McCabe. The perennial question for the Leafs is whether their regular season success can translate into playoff wins, and the answer to that question has been a resounding no in the Shanahan era thus far. Whether the answer to that question changes won’t be answered until the playoffs, but it has been an encouraging start thus far.
#10: Minnesota Wild (21-10-4, 46 points)
After being mired in mediocrity for what seemed like a decade, this season’s Minnesota Wild is an exciting, fast-paced team with a legitimate chance to win the Central Division and make noise in the playoffs. They have an elite, game-changing superstar leading the way in Kirill Kaprizov, an above-average goalie in Filip Gustavsson, and a stalwart number-1 defenseman in Brock Faber. There are some questions about depth, specifically pertaining to whether the Wild can score enough to improve upon their 2.94 goals-per-game which ranks just 19th in the league, but for now it has been a fun and exciting start for the Wild.
#11-15
11. Tampas Bay Lightning
12. L.A. Kings
13. Washington Capitals
14. Boston Bruins
15. Vancouver Canucks
For an interesting comparison, check out ESPN’s power rankings from December 20, 2024.
Image by David Santiago, Miami Herald.
